November Data Reveals Complex Inflationary Pressures

German import prices rose more than anticipated in November, climbing 0.5% month-on-month against market expectations of a 0.2% increase. This acceleration from October's 0.2% rise signals persistent upstream price pressures entering Europe's largest economy.

Annual Deflation Intensifies, Led by Energy

In a stark contrast, the year-on-year figure revealed a deepening deflationary trend. Import prices fell 1.9% compared to November 2023, marking the sharpest annual decline since March of last year. The primary driver of this annual drop was a significant 15.7% plunge in energy prices.

Monthly vs. Annual Trends Paint Mixed Picture

  • Monthly Surge: The 0.5% monthly increase was heavily influenced by energy, which saw a 3.1% jump from October.
  • Core Measure: Excluding volatile energy costs, import prices were up a more modest 0.3% for the month and down only 0.3% year-on-year.
  • Economic Implications: The data presents a dual narrative of easing annual imported inflation, which could comfort the European Central Bank, alongside recent monthly price pressures that warrant continued monitoring.

The figures highlight the complex interplay between falling annual energy costs and recent monthly increases, offering crucial insights for policymakers assessing the inflation outlook.